By
Kamal Chomani:
Twitter:
@KamalChomani
The recent
developments in energy cooperation between the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and
Turkey are seen by many as a route to Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)
Independence, a long-deferred dream of Kurds. However, putting all the eggs
into Turkey’s basket ultimately creates KRG Dependence on Turkey or, as many
put it, an incipient-colony of Turkey that makes the KRG very vulnerable to any
shifts in Turkey’s position towards Kurdistan.
With reserves of
about 45 billion barrels of oil, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq has become a hub
for giant oil companies. The KRG’s recent visit to Turkey and Barzani’s
meetings with Turkish officials, including with Premier Erdogan, concluded with
the revelation of oil pipeline projects worth billions of dollars.
Interestingly, one oil pipeline is already almost finished and another is on
the way. More interestingly, Turkey hopes that, by gaining access to KRG gas,
it can end its current dependence on Russian and Iranian gas. It is believed
that Turkey will retain the KRG energy revenues in Turkish banks.
The Turkish Justice
and Development Party’s (AKP) dream to be incipient-Ottomans of the region
require a more vigorous economy and a secure route to the Gulf. But the KRG can
be its subsidiary. Around 1,000 Turkish companies and 30,000 Turkish citizens
are working in the Kurdistan Region. The reality is that Turkey does not
possess enough gas and oil to meet her requirements. Although Iran and Russia
have provided gas to Turkey, the Syrian crisis has caused deterioration in
Turkey-Russia and Turkey-Iran relations. But now Turkey seems to have won
access to more gas at a much lower cost – from the KRG. As sources have
revealed, Turkey can get KRG gas at half the price of gas from Russia and Iran.
If you a pay a
visit to Erbil, especially to see the mushrooming hotels and colossal malls,
you will realize how Turkish companies and personnel have occupied the Kurdish
market.
If Turkey is the
colonizer of Kurdish land in Northern Kurdistan, she is endeavoring to be the
neo-colonizer of Southern Kurdistan. Turkey has expanded its cultural,
political and economic impact over the KRG. Culturally, Fethullah Gülen schools
and universities have been opening with KRG help. Economically, none of the
regional and international countries can compete with the Turkish presence
here. Politically, the KRG has been very cautious not to take any positions
that may be against Turkey’s intrigues. The unbalanced relationship between the
two has caused many in the Kurdistan Region to fear a return of the Ottoman
Sultans.
The oil pipelines
are significant in cementing the KRG’s route to a stable and developing
economy. At the present time, KRG’s quota of Iraq’s $100 billion-plus budget is
17%. Were it not for the KRG’s extraordinary corruption, nepotism, oligarchy
and monopolization of the market and all other fields of society, the region
would have become much more developed, democracy and freedom of speech would be
thriving and the people would be optimistic about the KRG’s policies, including
its oil pipelines policies.
The KRG’s 2013
plans for oil and gas made the Iraq central government more concerned,
especially when the KRG signed an oil pipeline project with Turkey to transfer
200.000 bpd (barrels per day) to the international markets.
The oil companies
earn considerably more from the KRG’s production sharing contracts than from
Iraq’s technical service-contracts and that is why ExxonMobil didn’t worry
about the threat from Baghdad’s government to exclude the company from its
Southern oil fields.
The Erbil-Baghdad
differences remain unresolved and the US has not backed the KRG in this
dispute. The US has also been concerned about the developing KRG-Turkey energy
cooperation. The US now is in a dilemma as to whether to back or oppose the
KRG’s oil policies. Either way, the KRG will continue to seek stronger ties
with Turkey.
The US has taken
the position that Iraq should not be fragmented, fearful of the tensions
between Erbil and Baghdad. It has favored Baghdad in public and so maintained
US access to the oil in all parts of the country.
This clearly shows
that the KRG was wrong in thinking that, if ExxonMobil and Chevron enter the
Kurdistan’s oil fields, they will effectively lobby for Kurdistan’s interests
and protect it from threats from other regional countries and Iraq’s central
government. However, the presence of these two giants is probably equivalent to
having two US brigades in KRG territory: the US would provide some sort of
protection if its oil interests were threatened. Nevertheless, even though
Turkey and the US have had very close ties, the US has still taken a position
against Turkey for dealing with the KRG without getting Baghdad’s green light.
Oil and gas have
made the KRG appear to be a regional energy player. With the completion of
KRG-Turkey pipelines at the end of 2013, Kurdistan’s oil can reach
international ports.
Turkey-KRG
relations are at a peak although they are in reality more between the Kurdistan
Democratic Party (KDP) led by Masoud Barzani and Turkey. The recent Diyarbekir
visit of Masoud Barzani and his delegates – and people’s anger and other
parties’ concerns at this visit – reveal how these relations have been
formulated.
Turkey has about
1000 companies operating in the KRG – more than any other country. The $10
billion Turkish investment and trade has made the KRG an incipient colony of
Turkey. The KRG has become a dependent banana republic, even though Turkey is
additionally dependent on the KRG market. It is estimated that business between
Turkey and the KRG will total a staggering $15 billion in 2013. This is a far
more lucrative business for the Turkish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) than that
with Germany, the UK or France.
The KRG-Turkey
pipeline has created tensions in relations between Turkey and Iraq, as well as
between the KRG and Baghdad. However, recent developments between Ankara and
Baghdad – including the visit of Turkey’s FM Davutoglou and his official
invitation to Iraq’s premier, Al-Maliki – should serve to warn the KRG
leadership that – if Ankara can be sure of achieving more from its intrigues
with Baghdad than with Erbil – then Turkey may sell out the KRG. There is one
very crucial reason for this vulnerability: The KRG currently has no other
option than Turkey for reaching the international markets and, especially, the
sea.
It is paramount for
the KRG to find other routes for its oil and gas. So far, it has only developed
regional energy ties with Turkey, a country that has her own Kurdish issue and
has massacred thousands of Kurds. In the current situation, the relations
between the KRG and Turkey are more or less relations between two political
parties, the AKP and KDP. If the political situation changes in either country,
the relationship would be imperiled.
Even though the
opposition CHP and MHP may not again become major parties in Turkey, there is
still a decline in the AKP’s clout, especially following the Gezi protests, as
shown by the recent polls in Istanbul. Furthermore the struggle of the Kurdish
people in Turkey is advancing and it is obvious that the differences between
the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) and the KDP will not be assist the KDP’s role
in developing Turkey-KRG relations because the PKK believes that these
relations are being built at its expense.
The KRG should find
another way to reach the international ports. It could reach the international
market if Barzani and the KDP were smarter and they had normalized relations
with the PYD (Democratic Union Party) and could use Rojava to export via
Jordan.
Alas, the KRG
leadership has instead implemented all the sorts of dirty politics against
Rojava – Kurdistan of Syria – instead of building stronger relations and bonds
between Kurds.
Rojava has become a
major player in Syrian politics and it will shape the post-Assad map of the
country. The liberation of the Yaaroubiya border-point from the Al-Qaeda
proxies has made the regional and international forces take the PYD seriously.
They cannot ignore the PYD anymore. The post-Assad Syria will be hugely in need
of economic ties. Rojava can bring Damascus and Erbil closer – only, of course,
if Erbil ceases its conspiracies against Rojava.
Another route is to
reach Israel’s Haifa International Port. This has also been discussed by some
experts although the KRG would need to overcome public suspicions of any deals
with Israel.
The KRG is a
component of Iraq but it would be easiest to get independence through the
division of the country into three states: Kurdistan, Sunnistan and Shiitestan.
Indeed this is the only way to stop the bloodshed in Iraq, where sectarian
violence is increasing day after day. Last month, the death toll exceeded 5,000
civilians. If this division occurred, Kurds could be friends of both Sunnis and
Shiites and could also gain access to the sea via a Shia state.
All in all, if the
KRG does not find other routes to reach international markets, its independence
from Iraq will turn into dependence on Turkey. The KRG should bear in mind
that, while the Kurdish issue in Turkey is unsolved; Turkey will never be an
ally of Kurds in the region. If Turkey has become fascinated with the KRG this
is only for two reasons: to gain access to the KRG’s resources and markets and
to exploit the conflicts between the KDP and PKK.
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